The latest probability of impact for asteroid 2024 YR4, as of June 3, 2025, at 4.3 per cent of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Along the top of the image is NASA's sequence of plots generated from Jan 27 through Feb 23 showing how the asteroid's closest approach to Earh changed as observations refined its orbit. (NASA CNEOS)

By February 2024, NASA had ruled out any Earth strike. The updated odds dropped to near zero, and 2024 YR4 was officially cleared from the “worry list.” But just when it seemed the drama was over, astronomers turned their attention to the Moon.

After months of tracking and refining Asteroid 2024 YR4's orbit, NASA scientists were able to rule out an Earth strike. There's no real risk to the planet in seven years or afterward, according to the agency. Now the space rock’s only potential target is the moon.